KEY MESSAGES
| ■ The paper provides a framework to help guide government’s decision to either extend enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) or gradually re-open the economy on a per-province basis using the so-called Quimbo-Latinazo-Peabody (QLP) risk indicators. |
| ■ QLP risk indicators have two dimensions: (a) the risk of virus spread, and (b) the risk of over-burdening the health system. |
| ■ Provinces and LGUs (in Metro Manila) are classified as high-, medium-, or low-risk for each of the two dimensions. A combination of risk categories (e.g., high-risk for virus spread and high-risk for health system over-burdening or “high-high”, “medium-high”, “low-medium”, “low-low”) becomes the basis for recommending a re-assessment of existing community quarantine (CQ) rules per province. |
| ■ Four policy considerations are imperative in any of the risk-scenarios: (a) social distancing protocol, (b) contract tracing and quarantine, (c) (provincial) border control, and (d) area-based and work-based mass testing. |
| ■ Updated disease surveillance and health system data are needed to regularly re-assess the risk classifications of provinces and LGUs under the QLP risk indicators. These classifications can help government, particularly the IATF, in coming up with policy recommendations, including the gradual and strategic re-opening of the economy. |
